Recently, Marc Rapp, a friend and former Art Director at Renaissance Creative and now an independent Creative Director up in NYC, posted a compelling list of predictions for 2010 in his Uniquely the Epitome blog. Marc is a progressive thinker who always operates ahead of the curve and is usually spot on with his thoughts on consumer, cultural and technological trends with respect to marketing, media and design. In his post, Marc asks guests for their own predictions. I left him one of mine, but didn’t want to consume all of his real estate. So, here are the rest of my own thoughts. Feel free to chime in with yours.
1. Instead of “LifeLock.com”, someone will create “LifeHock.com”, the first web portal where you can go to freely surrender your non-identity theft personal data– name, age, profession, income, hobbies/interests and contact information, in exchange for commissions based on how many times your information is re-sold to marketers, and how desirable your demographics. They’re going to get it eventually– why not get a fair cut and receive only high-quality, targeted spam?
2. Traditional media — In a last ditch effort to survive, newspapers will give up trying to marginalize bloggers as non-journalists and begin aggressively recruiting and hiring the most influential among them, in an effort to capture those bloggers’ audiences for their own benefit (cable has already thrown in the towel). Print will continue to shrivel under the heat of digital media.
3. The science of networks, not just social and MLM, but physical, virtual, biological, mathematical, online, offline, proven and theoretical will grow into a huge topic of conversation.
4. Ashton Kutcher will demonstrate the Klout of 5,000,000 Twitter followers, when he announces his bid for Governor of the State of California. At the height of the media frenzy surrounding his massive fundraising potential, Kutcher will show up unannounced on Larry King, revealing to scheduled guest and prior leading candidate, Jerry Brown that he has just been Punk’d!
5. The cult of celebrity won’t die no matter how hard stars themselves (Charlie Sheen, Tiger, Paris, etc.,) seemingly try to extinguish it. Celebrity is only enhanced by controversy.
6. Television also won’t be going anywhere (except to our mobile phones). And lo- I can envision a time when more brands will skip product placement and go straight into the cable network business. Consider: The Walmart Home Shopping Network; Coca-Cola “Happiness” Channel; IKEA Home & Design or Pfizer Health Sciences Networks.
7. Augmented Reality and 3D TV is (virtually) upon us. Get ready to hear a lot of, “But, ‘Fill in the Blank’ has a 3D TV!!!” from your kids.
8. “Crowds” will begin turning into angry mobs, once they realize that they are actually working inside “virtual” sweatshops.
9. The social media pendulum will begin to experience the full effects of gravity as nay-sayers, never-tryers and contrarians increasingly question its effectiveness as a legitimate marketing tool. There are already websites where people are going to commit “social media suicide”.
10. …However, I believe social media is an undeniably valuable tool for SEO (still one of today’s marketing cornerstones), and that it can be used very effectively for branding and marketing when integrated strategically, naturally, creatively and consistently. Those who give up on it too soon will be sorry down the road because networks by their nature, grow exponentially over time.
11. Aggregation and digital distribution will continue to make a lot more people rich.
12. Collaboration, a “new” old concept in work/business models, will also result in growing partnerships between brands as effective sales & product extension strategies. While Apple and Google won’t be hooking up any time soon, Ford recently announced it will use Best Buy’s sales force to demonstrate their new Sync voice controlled communications and entertainment technology.
Old concept: Collaboration. New Buzzword: Symbiotic Marketing.
13. Advertising won’t “go away”, as it is part and parcel of capitalism and free market economies. We can only hope that it will be more thoughtfully “imposed” upon us. Concepts, ideas and overall creativity will become more valued than high-quality executions in digital or traditional media, except to those inside the industry, who understand the critical importance of both.
14. Top agencies will increasingly be looked to as high-level strategic partners, contributing more significant ideas for creation of new markets, product development and broader corporate sales and marketing initiatives. In so doing, simple pay-per-service fees may be supplemented or replaced with equity partnerships and return-on-performance financial models.
15. The stigma associated with asking creative agencies for spec work will finally begin to resonate outside of the industry and into the collective consciousness of the corporate mainstream. Clients will eventually quit asking, out of concern for their own ethical reputations.
16. Giving back is going to become fundamental, and “givewashers” will be “outed”. Corporations and uber-wealthy individuals have it in their power to affect serious change in the world, while also inspiring an army of brand loyalists and imitators. Critical will be approaching it earnestly, creatively and in a way careful not to suggest self-appointed elites pushing Marxism as “progressive”.
17. “Honesty, transparency and authenticity.” Aren’t you sick of hearing those words? Me too, and I’ve blogged about them a lot. But the fact that these themes aren’t going away is a wonderful thing. If you’re something other than what you purport to be, someone will discover it; share it with ten friends; and you’ll be left to watch relevance slip through your fingers like sand.
…And my final prediction:
18. It’s nothing specific I see coming, just a feeling I can’t escape. It’s difficult to describe, and even harder to define. But, from tidal waves to earthquakes; from global warming to global recession; from fractured governments to failing banks; from falling idols to faltering families; from tea parties, to housing hangovers, to “reality” that is created and still largely controlled by the media– something over the past decade has left us feeling seriously “undone”. But, I predict that as this sentiment continues to emerge, that we’ll all respond in positive ways… By giving more to others than we expect back in return. By collaborating, sharing resources and ideas. By putting our children’s interests before our own. Listening to one another. And most of all, by seeking guidance, not from our celebrities, politicians or even our Facebook friends– but from above.
Have a great 2010.
P.S. Did I mention that I thought Leno at 10 PM was going to be a brilliant move?…
I completely agree with points 10 & 18
“Social Media can be used very effectively for branding and marketing when integrated strategically, naturally, creatively and consistently. Those who give up on it too soon will be sorry down the road because networks by their nature, grow exponentially over time.”
My prediction: A social media land rush will peak sooner than anyone expects. Soon online communities will blanket the space, and (when done well) audiences will become committed (read not likely to ditch their friends because your interface is better).
The companies that step out now will benefit greatly, especially those who have been marginalized by lack of spending power. This requires leadership, which involved risk, which is particularly hard when you know it’s not so easy to land on your feet should your boss grow impatient with this social media thing.
Regarding point 18: I believe there’s a fundamental cultural shift underway … the most obvious example is Open Source … if we create something that benefits many people, good will come to us, oh wait I just quoted “My Name Is Earl,” but see what I mean? There (was) a whole TV show about karma, what better indicator do we need? Ultimately, how many lives worldwide have been shattered by greed … momentum is on our side.
Thanks for working out the synapses!
Suzanne,
Thanks for checking in. It’s an honor to hear from professionals like yourself and I appreciate you sharing your insights.
You make some great points about the value of businesses / brands entering the social media space sooner, rather than later, due to audiences who will become committed to their friends and/or groups and may be hard to lure away. Also, recent studies suggest that humans can only actively process a finite number of relationships at any given time. (We needed a study to tell us that). The bottom line is that if you don’t reach out, you can be sure your competitors will. I’ve always believed that in marketing, as in life, the strongest relationships yield the most enduring rewards. Committing the time to build meaningful relationships is such a valuable asset for those with the wisdom to do so.
And you’re right- Time is money, so investing in social media while a relatively cost efficient means of marketing, is not free; therefore, it does involve some degree of foresight, faith and risk. Risk requires courage, but it also yields great rewards.
Finally, regarding your comments about point #18: Something sure does seem out of whack, doesn’t it? They say the most recent quake in Chile shifted the earth’s axis another 3. Go figure. While we can point our fingers at any number of reasons why things may seem ‘broken”, I’d suggest you astutely laid your finger on the common denominator (greed). We’ve got to overcome that.
I never did catch a single episode of “My Name is Earl”, but heard it was good. Eastern religions (Hindus, Buddhists) call it “Karma”; Abrahamic religions (Christianity, Judaism) call it, “cause and effect” or God’s will. Bob Marley simply said, “What goes round, comes round”. I definitely think the world could use a little more selflessness, and open-source anything is a great example of that. One other suggestion: Instead of praying for our own needs, why don’t we all start praying for somebody else’s?
Best,
Tim
#1 on the list… Not exactly my tongue-in-cheek concept, but the fundamental principles are the same. Looks like I’m trending a few months ahead of the New York Times:
“Web Start-Ups Offer Bargains for Users’ Data”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/31/business/media/31privacy.html?ref=technology